NOAA Maintains Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has maintained its forecast for a "below-normal" Atlantic hurricane season. This updated projection, with an increased 75% chance of below-normal activity, is attributed to strengthening El Niño conditions that cause increased wind shear,…
Orlando Daytona Beach Melbourne, FL, August 10, 2026 —
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is continuing to forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The agency has updated its prediction, now indicating a 75% likelihood of below-normal hurricane activity for the remainder of the season.
This updated outlook is primarily influenced by the strengthening El Niño conditions currently present. According to NOAA, these conditions are expected to lead to increased wind shear across the Atlantic basin. Wind shear is a meteorological phenomenon where wind speeds and directions change significantly with altitude, and high levels of wind shear are known to disrupt the formation and intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes.
As a result of these prevailing conditions, NOAA has revised its seasonal storm prediction downwards. The agency now anticipates a range of seven to 13 named storms developing in the Atlantic. Of these, an estimated two to six are projected to become hurricanes.
To date, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen the formation of two named storms, both of which occurred in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast indicates that the majority of the storm season, which typically runs through November 30, has yet to unfold.
Story summarized from the original created by News Service of Florida on www.orlandoweekly.com, see more information here.
